2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for Below-Normal Activity—Preparedness Still Key
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, marking a shift from the elevated activity seen in recent years. According to NOAA’s outlook, there is a 55% chance of a below-normal season, with only a 10% chance of above-normal activity.
Forecasters expect between 8–14 named storms this year, including 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes. For context, a typical season averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. [noaa.gov]
A key driver behind the quieter outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions. El Niño tends to increase wind shear in the Atlantic, which can limit storm formation and intensity.
While this year’s prediction points to less activity overall, experts caution against complacency. Seasonal forecasts do not predict where storms will form, or whether they will make landfall, and it only takes one storm to create significant disruption. [cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
Staying prepared and aware may help you proactively plan for potential exposures as the hurricane season unfolds. Here are some preparation considerations.
What to Do Before the Storm?
Tropical cyclones present several threats. Strong winds being the primary one typically associated with storms, water hazards including storm surge and heavy rainfall present greater hazards. Here are some practical tips you could implement to maximize damage prevention for your property:
- Pre-inspection: Complete a thorough documented inspection of your property to identify potential problems. Do this before a hurricane watch (36 hours in advance) or warning (24 hours) is issued.
- Consider hiring an architectural or engineering professional certified by a state or municipal retrofit program.
- Window protection: Install storm shutters, or board up windows using five-eighths inch marine plywood cut to fit. Avoid using tape, as it does not prevent breakage.
- Seal openings: Cover exterior openings such as vents and outdoor electrical outlets using urethane-based caulk to prevent water intrusion.
- Strengthen doors: Install hurricane-proof doors with at least three hinges and a one-inch long dead bolt lock. Use temper glass for sliding doors and protect them like windows. Reinforce garage doors with wind- and impact-rated systems.
- Reinforce roofing: Use straps or hurricane clips to secure roof connections. For gable-end roofs, add bracing to increase wind resistance.
- Landscaping: Remove weak trees, trim branches and shrubbery, and replace gravel with fire-resistant materials.
- Secure outdoor property: Move boats and trailers to safe and secure locations. Bring smaller items indoors. Secure fencing and mailboxes to the ground is possible.
Additional Hurricane Safety Tips
- Emergency plan: Consider drafting a comprehensive formal written plan that addresses all efforts to be taken during and after a tropical storm. This will help to ensure that all possible measures are being considered and implemented to prevent and mitigate damage. It can be easy to overlook a simple measure in the chaos and aftermath of a tropical storm.
- Stay informed: Take time to learn about your property, including elevation and if it is located in a flood zone or in an area prone to flooding. Identify nearby bodies of water as well as levees, dams, etc. Ensure information is being gathered from official sources that are qualified to provide reliable information.
