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Freight Market Outlook

Semi‑truck driving on a winding highway through a mountainous, scenic landscape.

As 2026 begins, the U.S. freight market is in a delicate early recovery: volumes are leveling off after several sluggish years, capacity is tightening as carriers leave the market, and most analysts anticipate gradual rate increases rather than a sharp rebound.

Across 2024–2025, US truckload freight saw subdued volumes. In their December report, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that the Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 1.2% from October 2024 to October 2025.1   Many industry forecasters described 2025 as a prolonged correction cycle. The overall economy impacts the demand for freight. Cautious consumer spending and interest rate trends have slowed economic growth. Factory activity has also been tepid. As a result, most forecasters believe we will see only gradual increases in shipment volumes in 2026, with more growth expected in the second half of the year.

The freight market entered 2026 with tightening capacity driven by carrier exits, reduced fleet investment, and a persistent driver shortage. Regulatory changes further constrained the labor pool, removing drivers and slowing new entrants. Analysts expect gradual normalization by mid-2026, but structural challenges—labor scarcity and compliance costs—will continue to limit capacity expansion and keep upward pressure on rates.

Most analysts anticipate modest rate growth in the new year. Spot markets were volatile and highly sensitive to small swings in demand or capacity in 2025, especially in freight-dense regions like the Midwest, Texas and the Southeast. Contract rates have stabilized.  

Stable rates and tighter capacity create opportunities to discuss risk management strategies with your clients. Reach out to your underwriting team or marketing representative today for tools and resources to help your freight clients manage the market shifts.

Insights and research provided by the Information Research Center (IRC) of American Financial Group. The IRC is an enterprise shared service, committed to connecting you with the data, intelligence and resources you need to do your job.

  1. The October 2025 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 1.2% from September 2025 and Fell 1.2% from October 2024, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, December 2025.